In2023,theglobaleconomycontinuestoslowlyrecoverfromnegativefactorssuchastheCOVID-19pandemicandtheUkrainecrisis,showingresiliencebutwithslowandunevengrowth.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)Octoberreleasedthe"WorldEconomicOutlook"report,predictingthattheglobaleconomicgrowthratewillslowdownfrom3.5%in2022to3.0%in2023and2.9%in2024.Inthe20yearsfrom2000to2019,theaverageglobaleconomicgrowthratewas3.8%.The2023economicgrowthratemayreachthelowestlevelinmorethan20years,excludingtheperiodsoftheglobalfinancialcrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic.Inthepost-pandemicera,theeconomicdevelopmentofcountriesaroundtheworldshowsanincreasinglyobvioustrendofdifferentiation.Notonlyisthereadifferentiationbetweendevelopedanddevelopingeconomies,buttherearealsodifferentiationcharacteristicswithinboth.TheIMFpredictsthatthegrowthrateofdevelopedeconomieswilldecreasefrom2.6%in2022to1.5%in2023.TheexpectedeconomicgrowthrateintheUnitedStatesfor2023hasbeenraisedto2.1%.EconomicgrowthintheEurozoneisweakerthanexpectedandhasbeenreviseddownto0.7%,nearingtheedgeofrecession.ThesituationisevenworseintheUK,withanexpectedeconomicgrowthrateofonly0.5%.TheexpectedeconomicgrowthrateinJapanhasbeenraisedto2%.Foremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,theIMFpredictsaslightoverallslowdowningrowth,from4.1%in2022to4.0%in2023.SomeAfricancountriesarefacingdebtcrisesandfinancialmarketturmoilduetotheimpactofthehighU.S.dollarinterestrates.SouthernAfricaisexpectedtohaveaGDPgrowthrateofonly0.8%in2023,andtheMiddleEastisexpectedtobeat2%.AmongLatinAmericancountries,BrazilandMexico,amongothers,haveachievedgrowthratesofover3%,andtheexpectedLatinAmericangrowthratefor2023is2.3%.InAsia,EastAsiaremainsthestrongestregionforglobaleconomicgrowth,withChinaandIndia'seconomicsituationsbetterthaninitiallyexpected,whileASEAN'sperformanceisslightlyworsebutstillmaintainsagrowthrateabove4.2%.Thecausesofglobaleconomicturmoilandsubsequentweakenedrecoveryaremainlyasfollows:Firstly,thepersistentnegativeimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemicontheglobalindustrialchainandsupplychainhasoccurred.Duringthepandemic,internationallogisticswerehindered,tradeandinvestmentdevelopmentstagnated,andtheglobalindustrialchainandsupplychainweretemporarilydisrupted.Althoughallcountrieshavetriedtheirbesttorepair,undertheinfluenceofvariouspoliticalandeconomicfactors,internationallogisticsandsupplychainshavebeenunabletoreturntothelevelbeforethepandemic.Therefore,theworldeconomyhaslosttheindustrialfoundationandmaterialguaranteeforhealthydevelopment.Secondly,countriesaroundtheworldarefacinganunprecedentedenergycrisis.Thepricesofmostrawmaterialsusedinenergyproductiongloballyareveryhigh.UndertheinfluenceoftheRussia-Ukraineconflict,thepricesofrawmaterialshaveskyrocketed,whichhasgreatlyincreasedenergyprices,pusheduptheproductioncostsofvariousproducts,andbroughtaboutseriousinflationarypressure.Theviolentfluctuationofenergypriceswillalsoincreasetheuncertaintyofenterpriseoperations,therebyreducingthewillingnessofenterprisestoinvest,forminganobstacletocorporateinvestment.Thirdly,globalinflationisseriouslyhinderingthepaceoftheworldeconomicrecovery.Thesurgeinenergypricescausedbytheenergycrisishastriggeredinflation.Theriseinvariouscostswillleadtoadecreaseincorporateprofitsandinsufficientinvestment.Especiallyformultinationalcompanies,inflationwillquietlychangetheirgloballayout,andtraditionalprofitmodelswillbedifficulttosustain.Inflationwillalsocausethedisruptionofthesupplychainandtheinsufficientproductioncapacityofenterprises,therebyshakingthedevelopmentfoundationofenterprises,leadingtoadeclineincorporateproductioncapacity,andsuppressingglobaloutputgrowth.Fourthly,countrieshaveraisedinterestratestocurbinflation,leadingtoatightliquiditysituationanddirectlysuppressingeconomicgrowth.Asoftheendof2023,theworld'smajoreconomiesstillmaintaininterestratesatarelativelyhighlevel.ThebenchmarkinterestrateintheUnitedStatesisbetween5.25%and5.5%,theEurozoneis4.5%,andtheUKis5.25%.Somedevelopingcountrieshaveevenhigherinterestrates,withSouthAfrica'sbenchmarkinterestrateat8.25%,Brazilat11.75%,andRussiaashighas15%.High-interestrateswillinevitablyrestrictcredit,suppressinvestmentandconsumption,andthushindereconomicgrowthwhilecontrollinginflation.Fifthly,geopoliticalconflictshaveledtofluctuationsinglobalfinancialmarketsandacontractionofglobaltrade.AftertheoutbreakoftheRussia-Ukraineconflict,theUnitedStatesandotherWesterncountriesimposedfinancialsanctionsonRussia,causingasignificantturmoilintheRussianfinancialmarket,andWesterncapitalwithdrewoneafteranother.Atthesametime,internationalfinancialmarketsfluctuatedviolently,andpricesofbulkcommoditiessoared.Thisyear,theIsrael-Palestineconflicthaseruptedagain,furtherintensifyingthefragmentationofglobalfinancialmarketsandinternationalinvestment.Inaddition,theUnitedStatesandEuropehavepushedfor"de-risking"againstChina,causingacontractioninglobaltrade.TheWorldTradeOrganizationpredictsthatthegrowthrateofglobalmerchandisetradein2023willbeonly0.8%,farbelowthelevelsof2021and2022.SupportingtheGlobalEconomicRecovery:TheStrengthoftheAsia-PacificRegionThisyear,inordertocurbpersistentlyhighinflation,theUnitedStateshasraiseditsfederalinterestratesseveraltimes,continuouslystrengtheningtheexpectationofa"softlanding."Intermsofresults,theConsumerPriceIndexforNovemberhasdroppedto3.1%,andthequarter-on-quartergrowthrateoftherealGDPoftheUnitedStatesinthethirdquarterreachedanannualizedrateof4.9%,thehighestsince2022,achievingfiveconsecutivequartersofpositivegrowth.Amongthem,privateconsumptionandprivateinvestmentcontributed2.7%and1.5%tothegrowth,respectively,bothreachingtheirhighestlevelssince2022.Also,duetotheresolutionoftheU.S.debtceilingissueandtheactionstakenbytheSwissandU.S.governmentstocurbfinancialturmoil,thefinancialrisksfacedbytheworldeconomyaregraduallyeasingcomparedtothefirsthalfofthisyear.Foralongtime,theinternaldivisionoflaborintheAsia-Pacificregionhasbeenveryclose,makingitthemostactiveregionintheglobaleconomy.In2023,theAsia-Pacificregionreleasesthedrivingforceleadingtheglobaleconomicrecovery.TheIMFreportshowsthatdespiteencounteringsomeunfavorablefactors,theAsia-Pacificregionisstillakeydrivingforceforglobaleconomicdevelopmentin2023.Theannualeconomicgrowthrateisexpectedtoincreasefrom3.9%in2022to4.6%.ThisisbecauseopenandinclusivedevelopmentisthemainthemeofAsia-Pacificcooperation.InJuneofthisyear,the"RegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipAgreement"cameintofulleffectfor15signatorycountries.Morethan90%ofgoodstradeintheregionwillgraduallyachievezerotariffs,furtherpromotingtheliberalEditor:DisclaimerTheviewsandopinionsexpressedinthisarticlearethoseoftheauthor's,GMW.cnmakesnorepresentationsastoaccuracy,suitability,orvalidityofanyinformationonthissiteandwillnotbeliableforanyerrors,omissions,ordelaysinthisinformation.